As we step into February, it’s worth pausing to take stock of what January actually delivered - not what was predicted, not what was hoped for, but what we’ve seen on the ground.
Yesterday’s Reserve Bank meeting is front of mind. Australia is the first developed economy to lift interest rates while much of the global conversation remains focused on cuts. Roughly a third of the population, being mortgage holders, continue to carry the weight of inflation control, a blunt formula, but one we are clearly locked into for now.
From a pricing perspective, January was subdued. Cotality reported Sydney house price growth of just 0.2%. That figure, however, rarely tells the full story.
What we watch far more closely is buyer sentiment and energy and, on that front, January delivered mixed signals. We’ve seen solid attendance across open homes, genuine enquiry, and a handful of strong sale results. At the same time, the market feels fragile. Buyers are engaged, but cautious. Many appear to be waiting for the next phase: an increase in listings, which is now beginning to surface as we move into February.
That timing matters.
February and March will be the most intense selling months to start the year, before momentum often eases in April as Easter approaches. This short window tends to sharpen decision-making on both sides of the market.
Which brings us back to the RBA's decision.
It’s not just the rate rise that mattered, it’s the rhetoric. Any signal that further increases may follow is a defining moment for the first half of the year.
What’s worth noting is this: at the end of 2025, almost every major bank and economist was forecasting modest house price growth for 2026. Not one meaningfully factored in rising rates. Once again, expert forecasting landed well short of reality.
Experience teaches a different lesson.
Rates move up. Rates move down. Property values adjust. Life continues. People still buy, sell, relocate, upgrade, downsize and make decisions based on real needs, not distant forecasts.
Our consistent advice remains unchanged: do not put your plans on hold waiting for economic predictions. Over recent years, following forecasts would have repeatedly led people down the wrong path.
The economy may remain volatile. The media noise will continue. But well-timed, well-advised property decisions - grounded in local insight and lived market conditions will still cut through the uncertainty.
As always, we’re here to talk through what this means for you, specifically.
