October sales market: Sunshine, strength, and a split market

October turned it on this year with warm, golden Saturdays, blue skies, and that unmistakable sense of optimism that defines a Sydney Spring. It was the kind of month where open homes felt alive again, where backyards glowed, and everyone seemed in the mood to move. But while the weather was flawless, the property market told a more complicated story.

Some campaigns were flying with competitive auctions, record inspections, and sold stickers slapped up within a few weeks. Others? Struggling for traction. The difference came down to one simple thing: price alignment. In today’s market, five percent either side of fair value can be the difference between a feeding frenzy and radio silence. Price too high, and buyers politely walk. Get it right, and they rush in with energy, purpose, and confidence.

The numbers behind the story

According to SQM Research, Sydney’s auction clearance rate hovered on either side of 55% through October, before slipping to 49.2% in the final week which was the weakest result of the spring season. It’s a clear reflection of a fractured market, one where great campaigns thrive while others are readvertised, extended, or quietly withdrawn.

A season of opportunity

The volume and calibre of listings this spring has been exceptional, arguably the best in years. Across our markets, we’ve seen multiple prestige homes and landmark properties draw major attention, with 1 Blake Street, Balmain setting the tone at a $27.5m guide for the historic residence. We also witnessed a welcome return of strong waterfront trading, and renovated family homes drew consistent engagement. The sub-$3.5 million segment remains particularly active with high intent, and buyers eager to secure before the mid-November slowdown.

Across the board, buyer turnout has been solid, with plenty of motivated households wanting to wrap things up before the year ends. There’s still a window of momentum, but only if pricing meets the moment.

The economic undercurrent

Late October brought a curveball. Inflation data came in hotter than expected, with the trimmed-mean figure up 1% for the quarter. That one number effectively shut down hopes of a 2025 rate cut.CBA who had previously forecast one final cut in February, has now declared the rate-cutting cycle over. It might sound technical, but this matters: sentiment moves markets. A rate cut would have fuelled confidence and activity. Instead, we now enter November with a touch more hesitation, especially from buyers juggling rising costs and media noise.

What it means for sellers

The message is clear: precision matters. In a market this price-sensitive, you can’t rely on presentation alone. Over-price and you’ll feel the silence. Price with discipline and the buyers will show up, ready, real, and determined. Momentum is still out there; it just needs to be earned.

October gave us sunshine and contrast, proof that even in perfect weather, property outcomes depend on clarity, control, and truth in pricing.