January Overview - Back for 2026: cutting through the noise in a shifting property market

As we step into 2026, one thing is already clear: opinions are loud, forecasts are fragile, and certainty is in short supply. Late last year, very few commentators had interest rates rising as early as February on their bingo cards. Yet here we are - headline inflation printing at 3.8% in January, leaving the Reserve Bank with increasingly little room to pause, wait, or hope for the best.

At this point, the misread on rate forecasting has moved from frustrating to faintly comical. Not a single major financial institution has landed close to the pin. That’s not a cheap shot - it’s simply the reality of the environment we’re operating in. Volatility is no longer an exception; it’s the baseline. So instead of obsessing over what should have happened, we do what we always do: we watch the market itself.

Early signals: what buyers are actually doing

Every year, we look for the same early indicators. Not what buyers say. Not what headlines predict. But how people behave on the ground. So far, 2026 has opened with encouraging buyer attendance at open homes. Numbers are healthy, but the mood is best described as curious rather than committed. Buyers are showing up, inspecting, asking questions, and waiting.

Why?

Because February traditionally brings a sharp rise in new listings, and this year is shaping up no differently. Many potential sellers are keen to move before Easter (which lands in the first week of April), compressing decision-making into a tight two-month window.

In other words, we’re heading into a helter-skelter period where momentum, presentation, pricing, and timing will matter more than ever.

Rates, reality, and sentiment

A rate rise, at face value, is never great news for homeowners or aspiring buyers. But markets rarely move on numbers alone, they move on sentiment. If the RBA’s language begins to suggest this is not a one-off move but the start of multiple increases, that’s where confidence can drain quickly. Not because people can’t transact, but because hesitation creeps in.

And here’s the tension: Most price growth forecasts for Sydney in 2026 assumed stable or easing rates. Very few models accounted for multiple increases. So, once again, we’re in uncharted territory where forecasts are being rewritten in real time.

What this market will (and won’t) reward

What feels increasingly clear is that this is not a market that rewards unrealistic expectations - on either side. Buyers will need to move decisively when value presents itself. Sellers will need to be sharp, strategic, and responsive to feedback. This is shaping up as a market of finesse, not bravado. Progress will be made through alignment, sensible negotiation, and a willingness to meet in the middle.

The bigger picture

Despite the noise, one truth remains unchanged: life doesn’t pause for economic cycles.

People still move for family, opportunity, health, lifestyle, and timing that simply can’t be deferred forever. While global economics sit well beyond anyone’s control, the decisions that matter most are often the ones tied to personal circumstance, not perfect conditions.

Given the track record of forecasting over recent years, our view is simple: don’t put your life on hold waiting for certainty that may never arrive.

Focus on what you can control.

Make decisions that align with your timing.

And work with professionals who understand how to navigate nuance, not just noise.

We’ll continue to monitor buyer behaviour closely, adjust strategy as conditions evolve, and keep our clients informed, not alarmed, as the year unfolds.