We’re now a week into October and we had some hope that the traditional spring market might inject a little more energy into property.
The weather has warmed, more quality stock is coming to market, and October would normally be one of the most active periods of the selling year. Unfortunately, that lift hasn’t arrived.
If anything, the key indicators continue to weaken. Sydney’s auction clearance rate is below 30%, property values are continuing to fall, sales volumes are down around 25% over the last quarter, new housing lending is weakening, the cash rate is 4.60% after four increases this year, inflation remains around 4%, and consumer confidence is sitting at levels not seen since the 1990s recession.
Whichever way you cut it, the spring rebound many were hoping for simply hasn’t arrived.
It may feel early to be talking about the end of the year, but property campaigns take time. Allow around five weeks to run a proper campaign and suddenly the runway between now and Christmas doesn’t look particularly long.
There is still time, but we know buyer fatigue starts to creep into the market through November, so for owners genuinely considering selling this year, our advice is to move sooner rather than later.
What matters in this market
Transactions are still happening every day. The real challenge is not whether the market is functioning, it is whether expectations have caught up with where the market is now.
That is where most of our conversations are moving.
If you want to sell but will only do so if you achieve a certain number, pack that thought away. This market does not reward unbridled optimism, attachment to an old valuation or the belief that your property is somehow insulated from the broader cycle.
Buyers are far more analytical now. They have more choice, less urgency and very little tolerance for paying above what they believe represents fair value. They will inspect, engage, ask questions and often show genuine interest, but they are also prepared to walk away very quickly.
Those are the biggest changes we are seeing in the current cycle.
A year or two ago, a buyer might have stretched because they were worried about missing out. Today, they are far more comfortable missing the property than overpaying for it.
That change in psychology is having a major impact on price.
And for sellers, the hardest part of this cycle is that the market rarely delivers the message in one clean moment.
It happens gradually.
The open home is quieter than expected. The second inspection doesn’t happen. The buyer who seemed interested disappears. An offer comes in below expectations. Another week passes. Then another comparable sale resets the benchmark again. That is how price discovery works in a falling market.
The danger is dismissing each individual piece of feedback because none of it feels decisive on its own. But when the same message keeps coming back from different buyers, across multiple weeks, it stops being opinion. It is the market talking.
That is the point where good decisions matter.
The sellers who are transacting are generally the ones who are prepared to listen, adjust, and engage with the market in front of them. The ones who remain anchored to where values used to be are finding the process much harder.
There is no judgement in that. Property is emotional and, for many people, it represents a very large part of their wealth.
But emotion does not set the price. The buyer does.
And right now, buyers are setting that price with more discipline than we have seen in a very long time. That is the reality of the October market
