September arrived with plenty of anticipation. Spring traditionally brings renewed energy to Sydney property, so the question was whether the new season would lift conditions or whether the weaker run of recent months would continue.
With September almost behind us, the data is in, and the status quo remains largely unchanged. New listing volumes across Sydney remain well below the same period last year. Cotality reported Sydney auction volumes through September running roughly 25-34% below comparable weeks last year, while broader market data continues to show fewer owners bringing properties to market.
Yet the total volume of property available for sale continues to build. That distinction is important. We don't have an influx of new sellers. We have properties taking longer to sell. Sydney advertised stock has been running above year-ago levels despite fewer properties coming to market, while selling times have increased materially.
In simple terms: supply is reasonable, but turnover is weaker.
Buyers remain cautious
The auction market reinforces the point. SQM Research's Sydney clearance rates have remained in the mid-30% range through the month, with the final weekends of the months under 35%. We’re now looking at a Sydney auction clearance rate that hasn’t been above 40% since 29 March.
Competitive tension remains subdued and buyers are scrutinising their decisions carefully. They are taking their time, comparing value and, in many cases, testing sellers before committing. But that's only half the story.
Good property is still attracting strong competition
At the coal face, we're continuing to see some very good property trade exceptionally well. Throughout September, we recorded a number of sales that comfortably exceeded our sellers' expectations. Where the property is scarce, the presentation is right, the pricing creates engagement and the right buyers are in play, competition is still capable of driving price.
In some instances, those results have surprised the broader buyer pool. Our average open-home attendance across the month was approximately 13 groups, while several first inspections attracted more than 30 groups, that’s important.
Buyers haven't disappeared. There is still a considerable appetite to progress with life when the right property becomes available. What has changed is their willingness to compromise.
They're more selective, more analytical and far less forgiving of a property or price that doesn't stack up.
Sydney's correction is gathering pace
The caution we're hearing from buyers also needs to be considered against the broader numbers.
By late September, Cotality's daily dwelling value index had Sydney prices down 8% from their early-March peak. Coolabah Capital's latest analysis is equally significant. Its data has the three-month annualised pace of decline in Sydney at 17.5%. That does not mean Sydney prices are forecast to fall 17.5% over the next 12 months. It measures the rate at which prices have been declining over the most recent three months and annualises that pace.
But it does demonstrate something important: the correction has accelerated. Cotality's September data also shows the weakness is particularly pronounced at the premium end, with Sydney's upper-quartile house values now more than 10% below their peak.
