Mid-September market pulse: A calculated market, not a hot one

The media headlines started the spring selling season by declaring we were in a “hot sellers’ market.” But that narrative was short-lived. Over the past week, the media are quickly learning what we already knew and what we’ve been reporting for months: the market is not hot, it’s calculated.

Overnight, the US Federal Reserve cut its cash rate for the first time in nine months, from 4.25% to 4%. More cuts are expected before year-end, with policymakers targeting 3.5% in the US. For Australia, this is a positive signal. Locally, forecasts suggest another cash rate cut in November, and the big four banks are already shifting, with all four majors now offering fixed-rate mortgage products starting in the 4s. We’ve also said all year that the property market needs at least four rate cuts to turn the price dial up, and as of right now, that forecast remains in play.

Closer to home, and in some very welcome news for every homeowner, Premier Chris Minns has taken a direct swing at local councils, declaring the days of drawn-out renovation approvals are over. From now on, minor improvements be it a deck upgrade, an attic conversion or an extra bedroom, must be approved within 10 days, or they’ll be automatically signed off. It’s a clear message: Sydney needs to move faster, and councils need to improve their planning approval processes, which are currently the worst in the nation.

But the real story, of course, is the spring selling season. What we are seeing, and once again forecast, is a rapid rise in listings coming to market. We knew this would be the true test of how much impact three rate cuts have had: would they deliver ongoing price growth, or cause the market to pause? Right now, it appears buyer demand isn’t keeping pace. The weak preliminary clearance rate data has slipped for two weeks in a row, and SQM’s final figures show just 51% of auctions cleared for the week ending September 14. Of that pool, only 24% sold under the hammer, which indicates buyer depth per property is thin on the ground.

What we’re seeing is that buyers are cautious. Affordability remains a key issue, and while there’s a significant increase in buyers inspecting and enquiring, they’re only committing when they see clear value. Sellers, meanwhile, are finding that the difference between an ecstatic result and a stalled campaign can be as little as 5 to 8 per cent. Right now, it’s sellers who are having to curb expectations on that margin, rather than buyers stretching higher. This doesn’t mean the market is weak, it’s quite the opposite. Sydney is still delivering record-high prices, even if the journey to the final outcome is more challenging. But it does mean the sugar hit from earlier rate cuts has worn off, and realism has returned. Sellers who stay connected to feedback, price tightly, and engage buyers with intent are still achieving strong results.

The message for September and the start of spring is clear:

• For buyers: stop waiting. Some of the best properties in years are available now, and supply is in your favour.
• For sellers: stay adaptable. With choice rising, the margin is thin, and success belongs to those who listen to the market.

We can sense that October is going to be very busy, perhaps the busiest selling period so far in 2025. The market will be further tested on buyer depth, strength, and engagement. But rest assured: sales will be happening, and those who play the conditions best will reap the rewards.