Spring has arrived and the warmer weather has immediately landed too.
There is already a noticeable lift in energy. Buyers are out, new properties are coming to market, and the traditional spring selling season is beginning to build.
But we are entering this spring in a very different property market, with plenty of opinions circulating. On the optimistic side, we're hearing that the market always bounces back. That price declines are being exaggerated. That buyers are simply low-balling and looking for bargains. And that conditions will improve relatively quickly.
On the other side, we're hearing that interest rates may rise again, affordability remains stretched, and property prices have further to fall.
As always, the truth is found in the evidence rather than the noise.
Sydney is now 6.7% off its peak - The latest Cotality data makes the direction of the market increasingly clear. Sydney dwelling values fell 4.1% over the three months to August and are now 6.7% below their recent peak, which is significant.
For context, Sydney's largest previous correction saw values fall 12.9% between 2017 and 2019, but we’re now tracking towards an annualised correction of 18.1 per cent, which would be the largest correction in over 40 years.
That said, there is an important distinction between then and now. The 2017–19 correction was largely the result of a deliberate tightening of lending conditions. Banks restricted credit, borrowing capacity contracted and that pressure progressively filtered through the property market.
It took roughly two years to play out. When lending conditions eventually loosened, credit began flowing more freely and the market started recovering heading into the COVID period.
This cycle is different. There isn't one obvious lever to pull. We have affordability constraints, elevated interest rates, cost-of-living pressure, weaker sentiment, changing tax settings, increasing stock levels and considerable economic uncertainty all landing on the market at the same time.
And rather than moving decisively towards an easing cycle, there remains ongoing pressure for interest rates to move higher again. That's what makes the next phase particularly interesting.
Spring will test the market. We now charge into spring with listings increasing. Buyer demand is absolutely still there. We are meeting good buyers every day, and quality property continues to generate genuine interest.
But buyers have become more discerning, more analytical and more price sensitive. That means strategy matters enormously.
Price positioning matters.
Reading buyer behaviour matters.
Understanding competing stock matters.
And, perhaps most importantly, being prepared to adapt during a campaign matters.
We are already seeing a noticeable shift towards private treaty sales for properties where an auction may not provide the seller with the strongest strategic position.
At the same time, a considerable amount of property continues to move around off-market as owners put their toe in the water and quietly test buyer demand before committing to a full campaign.
There isn't one selling strategy for this market. Some properties should go straight to auction. Others shouldn't. Some should be tested privately first. Others need the reach and competition of the open market immediately. Some need aggressive price positioning to create tension. Others require patience and a much more targeted approach.
The mistake is deciding the strategy before properly understanding the market around the property.
The next two months matter. We see September and October as the key selling window for the remainder of 2026. Spring will bring a touch more energy, but it will also bring more competition between sellers. Every new listing gives buyers another choice, and in a market where buyers are already selective, that competition matters.
It's going to be an eventful spring. It's going to be revealing, and we're going to learn a great deal about where this market is heading as increased stock meets the current level of buyer demand.
For anyone considering a move this year, our message is simple: start the conversation now.
That doesn't mean you need to sell tomorrow. It means understanding what your property is worth today, what buyers are doing in your specific market, what you're competing against and what selling strategy gives you the strongest probability of achieving the outcome you need.
From there, we can build a plan around your timing, your circumstances, and your objectives — rather than trying to fit your property into a generic campaign.
This is a market that will require energy, commitment, experience, and the ability to change course when the evidence tells us to. That's our job.
If you're considering selling, buying or simply want to understand what this changing market means for you, let's chat and get the plan right before making the move.
