June was another tough month for Sydney property, and the data backs up what we're seeing on the ground every week.
The final Sydney auction clearance rate sat between 31% and 35% for the entire month. We're now 100 days into clearance rates sitting below 40%. For context, during the worst of the COVID shock in March 2020, clearance rates stayed below 40% for just 5 weeks. We're now 14 weeks into this cycle. That's the kind of data point that matters far more than any single month's headline number.
The cash rate was held in June, but trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6%, the highest level in 2 years, and unemployment lifted to 4.4%. That combination is now pointing to a fourth rate increase in August, which would place real pressure on household budgets already stretched by three previous rises. Cotality data shows Sydney values are down 2.9% over the quarter, but the upper quartile, where the vast majority of our stock sits, is down 5.7%.
That's the backdrop. But the data only tells part of the story. What's happening on the ground is more instructive.
Open home numbers have eased steadily over recent months and we're now averaging 7 buyers per open home. Days on market have moved to 34, the highest we've seen since 2018. Buyers are cautious, and on the street, prices are realistically off at least 10%. We always interrogate the headline data, particularly when banks and economists are forecasting Sydney values are forecast to fall down 8% to 10% this year. Here's the thing: no buyer in their right mind pays today's price without already factoring in tomorrow's forecast. That value has already been removed from asking prices. Sellers have been absorbing that shift over recent months, and for many it has taken time for the message to land, because the speed of this shift has caught people out.
To be direct, certain listings are off as much as 15%, typically poorly located homes or those with inefficient layouts. The broader market is dealing with a genuine crisis of confidence, but deals are happening. The maths is simple: buyers have a price, and sellers need to decide whether they're willing to meet it.
This is a delicate period for everyone in the market. Agents are working hard to capture buyer attention, sellers are doing what they can to get homes sold, and buyers are navigating a genuinely uncertain economic backdrop, with another rate rise now looking likely. It's not a cycle anyone gets excited about, and it's certainly not one people want to hear when their most valuable asset is losing value. But the market always comes back. Exactly when is hard to call, but after 3 decades working through these cycles, we know the best opportunities always surface in markets like this one.
Buyers with the means are already taking advantage, securing properties at prices that in some cases match 2019 and 2020 levels. In our view, the majority of this correction is already priced into the market. Buyer’s today are simply too informed to ignore tomorrow's forecasts when making decisions now. What's left is sellers closing the gap between their own expectations and where the new value benchmark has settled.
As we move through winter, Sydney has the second largest volume of listings on the market since 2010. Supply is strong, opportunity has surfaced, and for those willing to act, the best deals we've seen in over 5 years are happening every week.
