Spring opened with headlines of a boom – the reality was far more balanced

We always find it slightly ironic that on one hand, society laments the lack of housing affordability, younger generations being unable to secure a foothold, and families leaving Sydney under cost pressures. Yet in the very next breath, media outlets cheer like jockeys whipping a Melbourne Cup winner, demanding higher auction clearances, runaway prices, and “million above reserve” stories to fill the front page. September gave us exactly that fanfare: headlines of buyers “surging back,” the “best clearance rates in two years,” and the usual hyperbolic tales of boom-time results. But when you strip back the noise and look at the facts, the reality of September’s property market was more complex and more measured.

According to SQM Research, the auction clearance rate for September never rose above 55%. Of the roughly 1,200 homes scheduled for auction each week across Sydney, only around 25% actually progressed to auction day. That’s a telling statistic. It highlights a market where four-week campaigns are running, but many are stalling before the finish line. Of those properties that do make it to auction, only about half sell under the hammer. Put simply, just one in four listed auctions in September achieved a sale on the day. This doesn’t reflect a surging market – it reflects one that is delicately poised.

We continue to see strong momentum in the sub-$3m market, where affordability is relatively more attainable, and buyer demand still runs deep. Step above $4m, $5m or $6m, however, and the story shifts. Buyers are still active, but they’re hesitant. They will inspect, engage, and even circle properties closely, but when it comes to making a committed offer, caution takes over. Many default to inaction rather than risk overreaching in uncertain conditions.

The September inflation reading nudging up to 3% didn’t help confidence. For months, the market had been leaning on expectations of further RBA rate cuts. Now, with cuts paused and talk shifting to whether rates may even need to lift again, some of that optimism has drained away. Banks adjust lending policies based on these signals, and when credit conditions tighten behind the scenes, it filters straight into buyer behaviour.

What’s become clear is that this is a finely balanced market, evenly weighted between buyers and sellers. Affordability remains under the spotlight, and buyers are hunting for value. The margin between a deal coming together or falling apart is often just 5–10% between what a buyer is willing to pay and what a seller expects. That might not sound like much, but in today’s balanced conditions it can be the difference between weeks of stagnation or a successful sale. In a heated market, buyers bridge that gap. In a cooler market, sellers adjust down. In today’s balanced conditions, both sides are digging in, and it takes careful negotiation, patience, and often a longer campaign to close the divide.

September has shown us a market that is steady rather than spectacular. Transactions are still happening, and strong results are being achieved, but the path to those outcomes is more complex than the headlines suggest. As we move deeper into spring, expect more of the same: active buyers under $3m, measured engagement at the top end, and a market that rewards strategy and some patience more than speed or hype.