June Overview – A tactical market demands strategic moves

It’s been a quiet but defining month in the property market. No fireworks, no frenzy – just a shift in the air that’s hard to ignore. Inflation has eased to 2.1%, the lowest in more than three years. The Reserve Bank’s preferred trimmed mean sits at 2.4%, marking the first time in a long while that inflation has landed within the target zone. It’s a technical milestone, but also a psychological one. The heavy lifting of the rate hike cycle appears to be over.

Major banks are moving in sync with that sentiment. CBA is now forecasting interest rate cuts in both July and August. CBRE’s Sameer Chopra is calling for up to five cuts in this cycle and believes mortgage rates need to fall below 4.5% to truly stimulate economic activity. And while fixed-rate lenders have already started adjusting pricing down, the market response hasn’t followed in a straight line.

On the ground, we’re seeing something different to what the headlines suggest. Buyers are present, but precise. It’s not hesitation – it’s intent. People are active, inspecting, running comparisons, but they’re not rushing. They’re watching, waiting, and acting when value is clear and quality is obvious.

We launched 22 Roseberry Street in Balmain in late June – a beautifully presented semi with great flow and natural light. In less than a week, we saw over 70 groups through the doors. That doesn’t happen in a soft market. But it also doesn’t happen by accident. When presentation, price and campaign clarity align, buyers engage fast.

That said, properties that miss the mark are being left behind. Across the Inner West and wider Sydney, clearance rates dipped throughout June, averaging in the low 50% range. Most unsold auctions didn’t reflect lack of interest – they reflected mismatched expectations. Some vendors are pricing ahead of the market, expecting that rate cuts will spark immediate competition. But right now, that’s not how it’s working. Rates shape policy. Confidence shapes behaviour. And confidence builds gradually.

June was a reminder that in this climate, clarity wins. Sellers who are tuned in, well-prepared, and working with a strategic plan are achieving strong outcomes. But the days of riding general momentum are behind us – at least for now.

Globally, the story is similar. The US Fed is on pause, bond markets are leaning toward easing in 2025, and economic sentiment remains delicate. In Australia, mortgage arrears are up slightly, but still well below historical danger zones. People are stretched, but they’re holding on.

As we head into July, all eyes will be on the RBA’s next move. If cuts arrive, they may bring an energy shift – but it will take time to filter through. Listings remain tight, and any lift in buyer confidence will likely compress quickly into fewer available homes.

For now, we’re not in a boom. We’re in a recalibration. And that shift is favouring those who lead with experience, precision, and a realistic edge.